Athletics at Cleveland Guardians — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 10:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Athletics 32%
Cleveland Guardians 68%
Locked before start
Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 75% Hit Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73% Hit Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.516 (home 80-75) vs away 61-94 0.394, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Athletics Cleveland Guardians
Pitching matchup
JL Jacob Lopez Appearance confirmed
TB Tanner Bibee Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 71°F· wind 11 mph, R To L· park factor runs 98· HR 98
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 75%
Locked at publish
hits 4/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.254 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.251 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.310
+6.7%p Park Runs 98 / HR 98 71°F 11 mph, R To L Cleveland Guardians 3 OUT (Colin Holderman …) Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) last 15G AVG 0.310 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.297 (145PA) Statcast xBA 0.251 (actual 0.254, overrated 3p) Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Cleveland Guardians home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
78% Athletics away +1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians home -1.5· Run Line Athletics away -1.5· Run Line batter77 AM Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.254 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.251 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 4/1 Hit
75% Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ games6 Cleveland Guardians Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.516 (home 80-75) vs away 61-94 0.394, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 12/7 Hit
68% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Athletics team runs Over 3.5· Runs Athletics Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.394 (away 61-94) vs home 80-75 0.516, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/13 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
