Athletics at Cleveland Guardians — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 5:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Athletics 31%
Cleveland Guardians 69%
Locked before start
Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74% Miss Cleveland Guardians home +1.5· Run Line 79% Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.519 (home 81-75) vs away 61-95 0.391, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Athletics Cleveland Guardians
Pitching matchup
JP Jack Perkins Appearance confirmed
GW Gavin Williams Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 68°F· wind 12 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 98· HR 98
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74%
Locked at publish
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.253 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.246 adjusted 0.280, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.308
+6.6%p Park Runs 98 / HR 98 68°F 12 mph, In From CF Cleveland Guardians 3 OUT (Colin Holderman …) Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) last 15G AVG 0.308 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.272 (353PA) Statcast xBA 0.246 (actual 0.253, overrated 7p) Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Cleveland Guardians home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
79% Athletics away +1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians home -1.5· Run Line Athletics away -1.5· Run Line batter77 BR Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.253 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.246 adjusted 0.280, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
74% Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ games6 Cleveland Guardians Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.519 (home 81-75) vs away 61-95 0.391, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 1/1 Hit
69% Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Athletics team runs Over 3.5· Runs Athletics Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.391 (away 61-95) vs home 81-75 0.519, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 0/2 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
