Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Athletics 28%
Tampa Bay Rays 72%
Locked before start
Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ 79% Hit Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ 81% Miss Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ 77% Hit Showing 3 of 80 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.607 (home 91-59) vs away 61-90 0.404, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Athletics Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching matchup
JP Jack Perkins Appearance confirmed
GJ Griffin Jax Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Dome 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 97· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 81%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.293 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281 adjusted 0.273, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.180
-13.6%p Park Runs 97 / HR 95 72°F 0 mph, None Tampa Bay Rays 6 OUT (Shane McClanahan …) Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) last 15G AVG 0.180 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.305 (436PA) Statcast xBA 0.281 (actual 0.293, overrated 12p) Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
82% Tampa Bay Rays home -1.5· Run Line Athletics away +1.5· Run Line Athletics away -1.5· Run Line batter77 YD Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.293 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281 adjusted 0.273, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
81% Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ games6 Tampa Bay Rays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.607 (home 91-59) vs away 61-90 0.404, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 2/2 Hit
72% Athletics team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Athletics Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.404 (away 61-90) vs home 91-59 0.607, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/3 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
