Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Athletics 28%
Tampa Bay Rays 72%
Locked before start
Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ 84% Hit Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ 78% Hit Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ 82% Miss Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.609 (home 92-59) vs away 61-91 0.401, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Athletics Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching matchup
BB Brady Basso Appearance confirmed
NM Nick Martinez Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Dome 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 97· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 84%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -7pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.241
-4.2%p Park Runs 97 / HR 95 72°F 0 mph, None Tampa Bay Rays 6 OUT (Shane McClanahan …) Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) last 15G AVG 0.241 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.287 (157PA) Statcast xBA 0.273 (actual 0.276, overrated 3p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 82%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.293 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281 adjusted 0.244, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.180
-13.6%p Park Runs 97 / HR 95 72°F 0 mph, None Tampa Bay Rays 6 OUT (Shane McClanahan …) Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) last 15G AVG 0.180 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.264 (178PA) Statcast xBA 0.281 (actual 0.293, overrated 12p) Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 JC Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -7pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)
hits 1/1 Hit
84% YD Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.293 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281 adjusted 0.244, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)
hits 0/1 Miss
82% Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line Tampa Bay Rays home -1.5· Run Line Athletics away +1.5· Run Line Athletics away -1.5· Run Line games6 Tampa Bay Rays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.609 (home 92-59) vs away 61-91 0.401, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 4/4 Hit
72% Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Athletics team runs Over 3.5· Runs Athletics Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.401 (away 61-91) vs home 92-59 0.609, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/5 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
