Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 17 (Thu) · 5:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Athletics 27%
Tampa Bay Rays 73%
Locked before start
Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ 78% Miss Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ 76% Miss Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line 82% Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.612 (home 93-59) vs away 61-92 0.399, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Athletics Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching matchup
JS Jeffrey Springs Appearance confirmed
DR Drew Rasmussen Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Dome 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 97· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 78%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -9pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.241
-4.2%p Park Runs 97 / HR 95 72°F 0 mph, None Tampa Bay Rays 6 OUT (Shane McClanahan …) Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) last 15G AVG 0.241 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.287 (157PA) Statcast xBA 0.273 (actual 0.276, overrated 3p) Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
82% Tampa Bay Rays home -1.5· Run Line Athletics away +1.5· Run Line Athletics away -1.5· Run Line batter77 JC Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -9pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)
hits 0/1 Miss
78% Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ games6 Tampa Bay Rays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.612 (home 93-59) vs away 61-92 0.399, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 10/2 Hit
73% Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Athletics team runs Over 3.5· Runs Athletics Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.399 (away 61-92) vs home 93-59 0.612, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/11 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
