Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs — Game center Final MLB
Sep 14 (Mon) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Atlanta Braves 49%
Chicago Cubs 51%
Locked before start
Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Hit Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Miss Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.556 (home 84-67) vs away 88-63 0.583, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 10, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs
Pitching matchup
RL Reynaldo López Appearance confirmed
DP David Peterson Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 69°F· wind 13 mph, R To L· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66%
Locked at publish
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 5/21 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 69°F 13 mph, R To L Chicago Cubs 9 OUT (Justin Steele …) Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.286 (210PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) BvP career 5/21 (.238, K 7·HR 0) → weight 10% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago Cubs home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
67% Atlanta Braves away +1.5· Run Line Chicago Cubs home -1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves away -1.5· Run Line batter84 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 5/21 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
66% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ian Happ Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ian Happ Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Busch Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Walks 1+· walks 1+ Seiya Suzuki Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alex Bregman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ian Happ 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ian Happ RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Seiya Suzuki 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Busch 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Busch RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nico Hoerner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Busch Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alex Bregman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nico Hoerner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch Hits 2+· hits 2+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ian Happ HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman HR· HR 1+ Seiya Suzuki HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ Nico Hoerner HR· HR 1+ games6 Atlanta Braves team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Chicago Cubs Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.556 (home 84-67) vs away 88-63 0.583, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 7/4 Hit
51% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Atlanta Braves Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.583 (away 88-63) vs home 84-67 0.556, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/8 Miss
49% Chicago Cubs team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
