Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Atlanta Braves 49%
Chicago Cubs 51%
Locked before start
Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Miss Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.553 (home 84-68) vs away 89-63 0.586, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 10, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs
Pitching matchup
MP Martín Pérez Appearance confirmed
KG Kevin Gausman Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 75°F· wind 4 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 2/12 adjusted 0.303, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Career vs this pitcher
2/12· weight 6%
-0.9%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 75°F 4 mph, In From CF Chicago Cubs 9 OUT (Justin Steele …) Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.299 (381PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) BvP career 2/12 (.167, K 1·HR 0) → weight 6% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago Cubs home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
67% Atlanta Braves away +1.5· Run Line Chicago Cubs home -1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves away -1.5· Run Line batter84 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 2/12 adjusted 0.303, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
65% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ian Happ Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ian Happ Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Busch Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Walks 1+· walks 1+ Seiya Suzuki Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alex Bregman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Seiya Suzuki RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alex Bregman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Busch 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nico Hoerner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nico Hoerner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Busch RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Busch Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Busch Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Ian Happ Hits 2+· hits 2+ Seiya Suzuki HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Ian Happ HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch HR· HR 1+ Nico Hoerner HR· HR 1+ games6 Atlanta Braves team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Chicago Cubs Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.553 (home 84-68) vs away 89-63 0.586, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 3/7 Miss
51% Atlanta Braves Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.586 (away 89-63) vs home 84-68 0.553, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/4 Hit
49% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Chicago Cubs team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
