Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Atlanta Braves 49%
Chicago Cubs 51%
Locked before start
Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.556 (home 85-68) vs away 89-64 0.582, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 10, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs
Pitching matchup
JR JR Ritchie Appearance confirmed
SI Shota Imanaga Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 69°F· wind 10 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 2/11 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 69°F 10 mph, In From LF Chicago Cubs 9 OUT (Justin Steele …) Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.286 (210PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) BvP career 2/11 (.182, K 3·HR 0) → weight 5% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago Cubs home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
67% Atlanta Braves away +1.5· Run Line Chicago Cubs home -1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves away -1.5· Run Line batter84 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 2/11 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
64% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ian Happ Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ian Happ Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Busch Walks 1+· walks 1+ Seiya Suzuki Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ian Happ 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ian Happ RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Busch 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nico Hoerner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Busch RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ian Happ Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nico Hoerner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Seiya Suzuki Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nico Hoerner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Busch Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch Hits 2+· hits 2+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Seiya Suzuki HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman HR· HR 1+ Ian Happ HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ Nico Hoerner HR· HR 1+ games6 Atlanta Braves team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Chicago Cubs Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.556 (home 85-68) vs away 89-64 0.582, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 8/5 Hit
51% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Atlanta Braves Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.582 (away 89-64) vs home 85-68 0.556, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/9 Miss
49% Chicago Cubs team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
