Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Atlanta Braves 53%
Houston Astros 47%
Locked before start
Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Miss Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.587 (away 91-64) vs home 77-78 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Atlanta Braves Houston Astros
Pitching matchup
GH Grant Holmes Appearance confirmed
HW Hayden Wesneski Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 73°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 99· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Park Runs 99 / HR 102 73°F 0 mph, None Houston Astros 8 OUT (Enyel De Los Santos …) Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.299 (381PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Atlanta Braves away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Houston Astros home +1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves away -1.5· Run Line Houston Astros home -1.5· Run Line batter84 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
65% Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ games6 Atlanta Braves Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.587 (away 91-64) vs home 77-78 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/4 Hit
53% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Houston Astros Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.497 (home 77-78) vs away 91-64 0.587, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 3/7 Miss
47% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Houston Astros team runs Over 3.5· Runs Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
