Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 6:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Atlanta Braves 54%
Houston Astros 46%
Locked before start
Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Miss Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Hit Atlanta Braves away +1.5· Run Line 70% Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.590 (away 92-64) vs home 77-79 0.494, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Atlanta Braves Houston Astros
Pitching matchup
MP Martín Pérez Appearance confirmed
HB Hunter Brown Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 73°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 99· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Park Runs 99 / HR 102 73°F 0 mph, None Houston Astros 8 OUT (Enyel De Los Santos …) Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.299 (381PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Atlanta Braves away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Houston Astros home +1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves away -1.5· Run Line Houston Astros home -1.5· Run Line batter84 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
64% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ games6 Atlanta Braves Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.590 (away 92-64) vs home 77-79 0.494, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/3 Hit
54% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Houston Astros Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.494 (home 77-79) vs away 92-64 0.590, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 2/5 Miss
46% Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs Houston Astros team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
