Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers — Game center MLB
Oct 3 (Sat) · 8:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Live estimate Atlanta Braves 50%
Los Angeles Dodgers 50%
Locked before start
Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Showing 3 of 85 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.500 (home 0-0) vs away 0-0 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 9, matchup combination model· Live adjusted (Top 1· 0 - 0 applied)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching matchup
DD Dylan Dodd Appearance confirmed
TS Tarik Skubal Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 94°F· wind 2 mph, Varies
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Live View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.300, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p 94°F 2 mph, Varies Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) Atlanta Braves 9 OUT (Martin Perez …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.286 (210PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Atlanta Braves away +1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Dodgers home -1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves away -1.5· Run Line batter77 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.300, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Live
63% Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ games6 Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Atlanta Braves Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.500 (away 0-0) vs home 0-0 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount· Live adjusted (Top 1· 0 - 0 applied)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· cap applied
runs 0/1 Live
54% Los Angeles Dodgers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.500 (home 0-0) vs away 0-0 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 9, matchup combination model· Live adjusted (Top 1· 0 - 0 applied)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· cap applied
runs 0/1 Live
46% Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
