Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins — Game center Final MLB
Sep 25 (Fri) · 11:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Atlanta Braves 55%
Miami Marlins 45%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.581 (away 93-67) vs home 79-81 0.494, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Atlanta Braves Miami Marlins
Pitching matchup
RK Ray Kerr Appearance confirmed
EP Eury Pérez Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 96· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 4/12 adjusted 0.313, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Park Runs 96 / HR 92 72°F 0 mph, None Miami Marlins 11 OUT (Robby Snelling …) Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.299 (381PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) BvP career 4/12 (.333, K 1·HR 0) → weight 6% Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Atlanta Braves away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Miami Marlins home +1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves away -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins home -1.5· Run Line batter77 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 4/12 adjusted 0.313, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
62% Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ games6 Atlanta Braves Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.581 (away 93-67) vs home 79-81 0.494, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 0/4 Miss
55% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Miami Marlins Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.494 (home 79-81) vs away 93-67 0.581, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 3/1 Hit
45% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
