Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 8:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Atlanta Braves 55%
Miami Marlins 45%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.584 (away 94-67) vs home 79-82 0.491, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Atlanta Braves Miami Marlins
Pitching matchup
BS Brent Suter Appearance confirmed
JR Jack Ralston Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 96· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Model probability
hits 4/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Park Runs 96 / HR 92 72°F 0 mph, None Miami Marlins 11 OUT (Robby Snelling …) Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.299 (381PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Atlanta Braves away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Miami Marlins home +1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves away -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins home -1.5· Run Line batter77 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 4/1 Hit
69% Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ games6 Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Atlanta Braves Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.584 (away 94-67) vs home 79-82 0.491, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 8/4 Hit
55% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Miami Marlins Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.491 (home 79-82) vs away 94-67 0.584, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 3/9 Miss
45% Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
