Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 7:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Atlanta Braves 55%
Miami Marlins 45%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.580 (away 94-68) vs home 80-82 0.494, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Atlanta Braves Miami Marlins
Pitching matchup
JR JR Ritchie Appearance confirmed
JJ Janson Junk Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 96· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Model probability
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Park Runs 96 / HR 92 72°F 0 mph, None Miami Marlins 11 OUT (Robby Snelling …) Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.299 (381PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Atlanta Braves away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Miami Marlins home +1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves away -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins home -1.5· Run Line batter77 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
69% Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ games6 Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs Atlanta Braves Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.580 (away 94-68) vs home 80-82 0.494, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/6 Miss
55% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs Miami Marlins Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.494 (home 80-82) vs away 94-68 0.580, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 5/4 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
