Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets — Game center Final MLB
Sep 14 (Mon) · 11:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Baltimore Orioles 47%
New York Mets 53%
Locked before start
Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Hit Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Miss Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Miss Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.460 (home 69-81) vs away 73-78 0.483, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Baltimore Orioles New York Mets
Pitching matchup
BY Brandon Young Appearance confirmed
JT Jonah Tong Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 70°F· wind 15 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 96· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 New York Mets home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 3.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% Baltimore Orioles away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 3.7 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
64% New York Mets home -1.5· Run Line Baltimore Orioles away -1.5· Run Line batter77 Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ Coby Mayo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Leody Taveras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Ward Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Ward Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Alonso Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Alonso Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gunnar Henderson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Alonso RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Alonso 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gunnar Henderson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Coby Mayo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gunnar Henderson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Coby Mayo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Leody Taveras Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Coby Mayo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ Coby Mayo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gunnar Henderson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Alonso Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Ward 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Leody Taveras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Leody Taveras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Ward Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Coby Mayo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Ward RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Alonso HR· HR 1+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Leody Taveras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Coby Mayo HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gunnar Henderson HR· HR 1+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ Leody Taveras HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward HR· HR 1+ games6 New York Mets team runs Over 3.5· Runs New York Mets Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.460 (home 69-81) vs away 73-78 0.483, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 1/3 Miss
53% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Baltimore Orioles Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.483 (away 73-78) vs home 69-81 0.460, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/2 Hit
47% Baltimore Orioles team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
