Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 11:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Baltimore Orioles 47%
New York Mets 53%
Locked before start
Coby Mayo Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Hit Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.457 (home 69-82) vs away 74-78 0.487, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Baltimore Orioles New York Mets
Pitching matchup
SB Shane Baz Appearance confirmed
SM Sean Manaea Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 68°F· wind 7 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 96· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68%
Locked at publish
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.228 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.235 adjusted 0.308, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.263
+4.2%p Park Runs 96 / HR 95 68°F 7 mph, Out To LF New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) Baltimore Orioles 11 OUT (Jordan Westburg …) last 15G AVG 0.263 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.322 (146PA) Statcast xBA 0.235 (actual 0.228, underrated 7p) Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 CM Coby Mayo Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.228 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.235 adjusted 0.308, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
68% Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ Leody Taveras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Ward Hits 1+· hits 1+ Coby Mayo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Coby Mayo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Taylor Ward Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Alonso Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Alonso RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Alonso 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Coby Mayo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gunnar Henderson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gunnar Henderson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Alonso Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Coby Mayo Hits 2+· hits 2+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gunnar Henderson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gunnar Henderson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Leody Taveras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Alonso Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Leody Taveras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Ward 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Leody Taveras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Coby Mayo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Ward Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Coby Mayo HR· HR 1+ Pete Alonso HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Leody Taveras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Ward Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gunnar Henderson HR· HR 1+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ Leody Taveras HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward HR· HR 1+ Run line4 New York Mets home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% Baltimore Orioles away +1.5· Run Line New York Mets home -1.5· Run Line Baltimore Orioles away -1.5· Run Line games6 New York Mets Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.457 (home 69-82) vs away 74-78 0.487, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 5/8 Miss
53% Baltimore Orioles team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Baltimore Orioles Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.487 (away 74-78) vs home 69-82 0.457, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/6 Hit
47% New York Mets team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
