Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 11:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Baltimore Orioles 47%
New York Mets 53%
Locked before start
Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Miss Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.454 (home 69-83) vs away 75-78 0.490, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Baltimore Orioles New York Mets
Pitching matchup
CB Chris Bassitt Appearance confirmed
XC Xzavion Curry Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 73°F· wind 8 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 96· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.267 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.285 adjusted 0.280, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Statcast xBA
0.285 (actual 0.267)
+0.8%p Park Runs 96 / HR 95 73°F 8 mph, Out To LF New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) Baltimore Orioles 11 OUT (Jordan Westburg …) last 15G AVG 0.263 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.275 (415PA) Statcast xBA 0.285 (actual 0.267, underrated 18p) Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 PA Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.267 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.285 adjusted 0.280, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
68% Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Coby Mayo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Leody Taveras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Ward Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Ward Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Alonso Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gunnar Henderson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gunnar Henderson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Alonso Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Alonso RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Coby Mayo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Alonso 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gunnar Henderson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gunnar Henderson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Leody Taveras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Coby Mayo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Coby Mayo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Alonso Hits 2+· hits 2+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ Leody Taveras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Leody Taveras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Ward 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Leody Taveras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Coby Mayo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Ward Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Ward RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Coby Mayo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Ward Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Alonso HR· HR 1+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Coby Mayo HR· HR 1+ Gunnar Henderson HR· HR 1+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Leody Taveras HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward HR· HR 1+ Run line4 New York Mets home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% Baltimore Orioles away +1.5· Run Line New York Mets home -1.5· Run Line Baltimore Orioles away -1.5· Run Line games6 New York Mets team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Baltimore Orioles team runs Over 4.5· Runs New York Mets Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.454 (home 69-83) vs away 75-78 0.490, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 1/8 Miss
53% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Baltimore Orioles Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.490 (away 75-78) vs home 69-83 0.454, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/2 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
