Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 5:37 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Baltimore Orioles 45%
Toronto Blue Jays 55%
Locked before start
Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Hit Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Hit Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.500 (home 75-75) vs away 72-78 0.480, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching matchup
TR Trevor Rogers Appearance confirmed
DC Dylan Cease Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 78°F· wind 6 mph, R To L· park factor runs 101· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.224 adjusted 0.243, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.235
+0.4%p Park Runs 101 / HR 103 78°F 6 mph, R To L Toronto Blue Jays 13 OUT (Dylan Cease …) Baltimore Orioles 11 OUT (Jordan Westburg …) last 15G AVG 0.235 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.250 (148PA) Statcast xBA 0.224 (actual 0.232, overrated 8p) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Toronto Blue Jays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 3.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% Baltimore Orioles away +1.5· Run Line Toronto Blue Jays home -1.5· Run Line Baltimore Orioles away -1.5· Run Line batter77 KO Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.224 adjusted 0.243, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
67% Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ George Springer Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Coby Mayo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Leody Taveras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Ward Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Ward Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kazuma Okamoto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Alonso Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andrés Giménez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gunnar Henderson Walks 1+· walks 1+ George Springer Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ernie Clement Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ernie Clement 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ George Springer RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Alonso RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Alonso Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gunnar Henderson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ George Springer 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Coby Mayo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gunnar Henderson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Lukes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Coby Mayo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Alonso 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andrés Giménez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Lukes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Coby Mayo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ernie Clement RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Coby Mayo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gunnar Henderson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Leody Taveras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Lukes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Alonso Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kazuma Okamoto HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Ward Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Ward 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Leody Taveras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ernie Clement Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andrés Giménez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Coby Mayo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Alonso HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Leody Taveras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Coby Mayo HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gunnar Henderson HR· HR 1+ George Springer HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes HR· HR 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR· HR 1+ Leody Taveras HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward HR· HR 1+ games6 Toronto Blue Jays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.500 (home 75-75) vs away 72-78 0.480, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 8/2 Hit
55% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Baltimore Orioles Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.480 (away 72-78) vs home 75-75 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/9 Miss
45% Toronto Blue Jays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Baltimore Orioles team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
