Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees — Game center Final MLB
Sep 30 (Wed) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Boston Red Sox 5%
New York Yankees 95%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 1.000 (home 1-0) vs away 0-1 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Boston Red Sox New York Yankees
Pitching matchup
PT Payton Tolle Appearance confirmed
CS Cam Schlittler Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 67°F· wind 8 mph, L To R· park factor runs 102· HR 112
Data source: MLB Stats API
Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 New York Yankees home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
97% New York Yankees home -1.5· Run Line High
expected runs 4.0 vs 3.7 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
66% Boston Red Sox away +1.5· Run Line Boston Red Sox away -1.5· Run Line games6 New York Yankees Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 1.000 (home 1-0) vs away 0-1 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 9/1 Hit
95% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals New York Yankees team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Boston Red Sox team runs Over 3.5· Runs Boston Red Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.500 (away 0-1) vs home 1-0 1.000, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 0/10 Miss
5% batter84 Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
