Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees — Game center Final MLB
Oct 1 (Thu) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Boston Red Sox 5%
New York Yankees 95%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 1.000 (home 2-0) vs away 0-2 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 12, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Boston Red Sox New York Yankees
Pitching matchup
SG Sonny Gray Appearance confirmed
MF Max Fried Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 68°F· wind 5 mph, Varies· park factor runs 102· HR 112
Data source: MLB Stats API
Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 New York Yankees home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
97% New York Yankees home -1.5· Run Line High
expected runs 4.0 vs 3.7 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
66% Boston Red Sox away +1.5· Run Line Boston Red Sox away -1.5· Run Line games6 New York Yankees Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 1.000 (home 2-0) vs away 0-2 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 12, matchup combination model
runs 9/3 Hit
95% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals New York Yankees team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Boston Red Sox team runs Over 3.5· Runs Boston Red Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.500 (away 0-2) vs home 2-0 1.000, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/10 Miss
5% batter84 Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
