Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 18 (Fri) · 11:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Boston Red Sox 39%
Tampa Bay Rays 61%
Locked before start
Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line 73% Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Miss Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Miss Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.608 (home 93-60) vs away 84-70 0.545, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching matchup
RS Ranger Suarez Appearance confirmed
IS Ian Seymour Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Dome 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 97· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.253 adjusted 0.268, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.179
-8.3%p Park Runs 97 / HR 95 72°F 0 mph, None Tampa Bay Rays 6 OUT (Shane McClanahan …) Boston Red Sox 11 OUT (Tyron Guerrero …) last 15G AVG 0.179 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.295 (190PA) Statcast xBA 0.253 (actual 0.248, underrated 5p) Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Boston Red Sox away +1.5· Run Line Tampa Bay Rays home -1.5· Run Line Boston Red Sox away -1.5· Run Line batter84 WA Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.253 adjusted 0.268, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
66% Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ games6 Tampa Bay Rays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.608 (home 93-60) vs away 84-70 0.545, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 2/5 Miss
61% Boston Red Sox team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Boston Red Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.545 (away 84-70) vs home 93-60 0.608, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/3 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
