Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 8:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Boston Red Sox 40%
Tampa Bay Rays 60%
Locked before start
Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ 59% Miss Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line 73% Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ 58% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.610 (home 94-60) vs away 84-71 0.542, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching matchup
BB Brayan Bello Appearance confirmed
FP Freddy Peralta Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Dome 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 97· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62%
Locked at publish
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.306 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.261 adjusted 0.298, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Statcast xBA
0.261 (actual 0.306)
-1.9%p Park Runs 97 / HR 95 72°F 0 mph, None Tampa Bay Rays 6 OUT (Shane McClanahan …) Boston Red Sox 11 OUT (Tyron Guerrero …) last 15G AVG 0.298 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.318 (371PA) Statcast xBA 0.261 (actual 0.306, overrated 45p) Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Boston Red Sox away +1.5· Run Line Tampa Bay Rays home -1.5· Run Line Boston Red Sox away -1.5· Run Line batter84 CS Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.306 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.261 adjusted 0.298, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
62% Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ games6 Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Tampa Bay Rays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.610 (home 94-60) vs away 84-71 0.542, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 2/2 Hit
60% Boston Red Sox team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Boston Red Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.542 (away 84-71) vs home 94-60 0.610, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/3 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
