Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 5:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Boston Red Sox 39%
Tampa Bay Rays 61%
Locked before start
Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69% Hit Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line 73% Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Miss Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.613 (home 95-60) vs away 84-72 0.538, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching matchup
PS Patrick Sandoval Appearance confirmed
GJ Griffin Jax Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Dome 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 97· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.241
-4.2%p Park Runs 97 / HR 95 72°F 0 mph, None Tampa Bay Rays 6 OUT (Shane McClanahan …) Boston Red Sox 11 OUT (Tyron Guerrero …) last 15G AVG 0.241 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.287 (157PA) Statcast xBA 0.273 (actual 0.276, overrated 3p) Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Boston Red Sox away +1.5· Run Line Tampa Bay Rays home -1.5· Run Line Boston Red Sox away -1.5· Run Line batter84 JC Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
69% Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ games6 Boston Red Sox team runs Over 3.5· Runs Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Tampa Bay Rays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.613 (home 95-60) vs away 84-72 0.538, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 5/2 Hit
61% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Boston Red Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.538 (away 84-72) vs home 95-60 0.613, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/6 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
