Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 12:05 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Boston Red Sox 51%
Texas Rangers 49%
Locked before start
Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Hit Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ 52% Hit Boston Red Sox away +1.5· Run Line 69% Showing 3 of 23 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.543 (away 82-69) vs home 75-76 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers
Pitching matchup
PS Patrick Sandoval Appearance confirmed
JD Jacob deGrom Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 74°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.304, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.228
-3.8%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 74°F 0 mph, None Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) Boston Red Sox 11 OUT (Tyron Guerrero …) last 15G AVG 0.228 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.326 (187PA) Statcast xBA 0.267 (actual 0.260, underrated 7p) Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Boston Red Sox away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Texas Rangers home +1.5· Run Line Boston Red Sox away -1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers home -1.5· Run Line batter77 BN Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.304, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
67% Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ games6 Boston Red Sox team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Boston Red Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.543 (away 82-69) vs home 75-76 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/5 Miss
51% Texas Rangers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.497 (home 75-76) vs away 82-69 0.543, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 4/3 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
