Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 17 (Thu) · 12:05 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Boston Red Sox 51%
Texas Rangers 50%
Locked before start
Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Miss Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Miss Showing 3 of 28 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.539 (away 82-70) vs home 76-76 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers
Pitching matchup
JB Jake Bennett Appearance confirmed
MG MacKenzie Gore Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 74°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
games6 Boston Red Sox team runs Over 3.5· Runs Low
season 4.3runs/G → park·weather·Opposing bullpen adjusted 3.9 pts, scoring distribution P(≥4)· simulation· stacking +7pp (meta-model over 414 past events)
runs 3/4 Miss
73% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Boston Red Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.539 (away 82-70) vs home 76-76 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/8 Miss
51% Texas Rangers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.500 (home 76-76) vs away 82-70 0.539, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 7/4 Hit
50% Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Run line4 Boston Red Sox away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% Texas Rangers home +1.5· Run Line Boston Red Sox away -1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers home -1.5· Run Line batter77 Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
