Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 18 (Fri) · 12:05 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Boston Red Sox 50%
Texas Rangers 50%
Locked before start
Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72% Hit Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Miss Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Showing 3 of 80 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.497 (home 76-77) vs away 83-70 0.542, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers
Pitching matchup
SG Sonny Gray Appearance confirmed
TA Tyler Alexander Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 74°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.253 adjusted 0.268, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.179
-8.3%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 74°F 0 mph, None Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) Boston Red Sox 11 OUT (Tyron Guerrero …) last 15G AVG 0.179 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.295 (190PA) Statcast xBA 0.253 (actual 0.248, underrated 5p) Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 WA Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.253 adjusted 0.268, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
72% Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ games6 Boston Red Sox team runs Over 3.5· Runs Low
season 4.3runs/G → park·weather·Opposing bullpen adjusted 3.9 pts, scoring distribution P(≥4)· simulation· stacking +7pp (meta-model over 414 past events)
runs 4/4 Hit
72% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Boston Red Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.542 (away 83-70) vs home 76-77 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/4 Hit
50% Texas Rangers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.497 (home 76-77) vs away 83-70 0.542, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 3/5 Miss
50% Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Run line4 Boston Red Sox away +1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers home +1.5· Run Line Boston Red Sox away -1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers home -1.5· Run Line strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
