Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 7:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Chicago Cubs 47%
Boston Red Sox 53%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.537 (home 87-75) vs away 89-73 0.549, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Chicago Cubs Boston Red Sox
Pitching matchup
SI Shota Imanaga Appearance confirmed
TH Tanner Houck Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Dome 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 97· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago Cubs away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
66% Boston Red Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.4 vs 3.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
65% Chicago Cubs away -1.5· Run Line Boston Red Sox home -1.5· Run Line batter84 Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ian Happ Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alex Bregman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ian Happ RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ian Happ 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ian Happ Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Busch 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Busch Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Busch Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Busch RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nico Hoerner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ian Happ Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nico Hoerner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alex Bregman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ HR· HR 1+ Seiya Suzuki HR· HR 1+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Busch Hits 2+· hits 2+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Busch HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ Nico Hoerner HR· HR 1+ games6 Boston Red Sox team runs Over 3.5· Runs Boston Red Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.537 (home 87-75) vs away 89-73 0.549, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 2/7 Miss
53% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Chicago Cubs Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.549 (away 89-73) vs home 87-75 0.537, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/3 Hit
47% Chicago Cubs team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
