Great American Ball ParkSep 18 (Fri) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Chicago Cubs53%
Cincinnati Reds47%
Locked before start
Pete Crow-ArmstrongHits 1+· hits 1+73%Miss
Nico HoernerHits 1+· hits 1+72%Hit
Alex BregmanHits 1+· hits 1+71%Miss
Showing 3 of 93 locked markets
Behind the probability
season win% 0.552 (away 85-69) vs home 72-82 0.468, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head
Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds
Pitching matchup
CHClay HolmesAppearance confirmed
CBChase BurnsAppearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
AwayWLWLW
HomeLWLLW
Partly Cloudy 76°F· wind 10 mph, L To R· park factor runs 104· HR 116
Season AVG 0.280 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.264 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Season AVG
0.280
+3.0%p
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.267
-1.6%p
Statcast xBA
0.264 (actual 0.280)
-0.7%p
Park Runs 104 / HR 116
76°F 10 mph, L To R
Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Dane Myers …)
Chicago Cubs 9 OUT (Justin Steele …)
last 15G AVG 0.267 ↓
vs RHP AVG 0.279 (426PA)
Statcast xBA 0.264 (actual 0.280, overrated 16p)
NH
Nico Hoerner
batter
Hits 1+· hits 1+72%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1HitView model reasoning
Season AVG 0.263 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.297 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
