Great American Ball ParkSep 19 (Sat) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Pregame forecast
Chicago Cubs54%
Cincinnati Reds46%
Locked before start
Pete Crow-ArmstrongHits 1+· hits 1+76%Miss
Alex BregmanHits 1+· hits 1+73%Miss
Seiya SuzukiHits 1+· hits 1+69%Hit
Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability
season win% 0.555 (away 86-69) vs home 72-83 0.465, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head
Chicago CubsCincinnati Reds
Pitching matchup
MBMatthew BoydAppearance confirmed
NLNick LodoloAppearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
AwayLWLWL
HomeWLWLL
Overcast 85°F· wind 6 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 104· HR 116
Season AVG 0.280 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.264· BvP 4/14 adjusted 0.272, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Season AVG
0.280
+3.0%p
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.267
-1.6%p
Statcast xBA
0.264 (actual 0.280)
-0.7%p
Park Runs 104 / HR 116
85°F 6 mph, Out To LF
Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Dane Myers …)
Chicago Cubs 9 OUT (Justin Steele …)
last 15G AVG 0.267 ↓
vs LHP AVG 0.280 (200PA)
Statcast xBA 0.264 (actual 0.280, overrated 16p)
BvP career 4/14 (.286, K 5·HR 0) → weight 7%
AB
Alex Bregman
batter
Hits 1+· hits 1+73%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1MissView model reasoning
Season AVG 0.265 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.252 adjusted 0.283, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
