Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 5:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Chicago Cubs 55%
Cincinnati Reds 45%
Locked before start
Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ 58% Hit Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Hit Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ 56% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.558 (away 87-69) vs home 72-84 0.462, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds
Pitching matchup
DP David Peterson Appearance confirmed
RL Rhett Lowder Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 86°F· wind 6 mph, R To L· park factor runs 104· HR 116
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.283 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281· BvP 5/15 adjusted 0.319, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.291
+1.0%p Park Runs 104 / HR 116 86°F 6 mph, R To L Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Dane Myers …) Chicago Cubs 9 OUT (Justin Steele …) last 15G AVG 0.291 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.325 (166PA) Statcast xBA 0.281 (actual 0.283, overrated 2p) BvP career 5/15 (.333, K 3·HR 0) → weight 7% Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sal Stewart Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago Cubs away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 5.0 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
72% Cincinnati Reds home +1.5· Run Line Chicago Cubs away -1.5· Run Line Cincinnati Reds home -1.5· Run Line batter84 EC Elly De La Cruz Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.283 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281· BvP 5/15 adjusted 0.319, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
64% Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sal Stewart Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ian Happ Hits 1+· hits 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 1+· hits 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Elly De La Cruz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt McLain Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sal Stewart Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Elly De La Cruz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sal Stewart RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nico Hoerner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Busch Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Busch Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ian Happ Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alex Bregman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Busch 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Seiya Suzuki Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Busch RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sal Stewart 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Seiya Suzuki Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Bleday Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Eugenio Suárez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ian Happ Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tyler Stephenson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Elly De La Cruz Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Bleday RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tyler Stephenson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Eugenio Suárez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Eugenio Suárez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tyler Stephenson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Eugenio Suárez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Busch Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart HR· HR 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 2+· hits 2+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Elly De La Cruz HR· HR 1+ Eugenio Suárez HR· HR 1+ Ian Happ HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman HR· HR 1+ Seiya Suzuki HR· HR 1+ JJ Bleday HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Busch HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain HR· HR 1+ Tyler Stephenson HR· HR 1+ Nico Hoerner HR· HR 1+ games6 Chicago Cubs Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.558 (away 87-69) vs home 72-84 0.462, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 9/2 Hit
55% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Chicago Cubs team runs Over 5.5· Runs Cincinnati Reds Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.462 (home 72-84) vs away 87-69 0.558, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 9, matchup combination model
runs 1/10 Miss
45% Cincinnati Reds team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
