Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres — Game center Final MLB
Sep 30 (Wed) · 2:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Chicago Cubs 5%
San Diego Padres 95%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 1.000 (home 1-0) vs away 0-1 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Chicago Cubs San Diego Padres
Pitching matchup
MB Matthew Boyd Appearance confirmed
MK Michael King Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 74°F· wind 4 mph, L To R· park factor runs 95· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296· BvP 3/12 adjusted 0.313, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+5.3%p Park Runs 95 / HR 95 74°F 4 mph, L To R San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) Chicago Cubs 11 OUT (Justin Steele …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.309 (139PA) Statcast xBA 0.296 (actual 0.289, underrated 7p) BvP career 3/12 (.250, K 2·HR 1) → weight 6% Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 San Diego Padres home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.4 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
96% San Diego Padres home -1.5· Run Line Chicago Cubs away +1.5· Run Line Chicago Cubs away -1.5· Run Line games6 San Diego Padres Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 1.000 (home 1-0) vs away 0-1 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 8/1 Hit
95% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Chicago Cubs team runs Over 4.5· Runs Chicago Cubs Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.500 (away 0-1) vs home 1-0 1.000, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 0/9 Miss
5% batter84 FJ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296· BvP 3/12 adjusted 0.313, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
64% Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ian Happ Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ian Happ Walks 1+· walks 1+ Seiya Suzuki Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alex Bregman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alex Bregman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Busch 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nico Hoerner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Busch RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nico Hoerner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Busch Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch Hits 2+· hits 2+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Ian Happ Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alex Bregman HR· HR 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Seiya Suzuki HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Ian Happ HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ Nico Hoerner HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
