Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres — Game center Final MLB
Oct 1 (Thu) · 2:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Chicago Cubs 5%
San Diego Padres 95%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 1.000 (home 2-0) vs away 0-2 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Chicago Cubs San Diego Padres
Pitching matchup
KG Kevin Gausman Appearance confirmed
NP Nick Pivetta Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 71°F· wind 6 mph, L To R· park factor runs 95· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296· BvP 8/23 adjusted 0.301, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+5.3%p Park Runs 95 / HR 95 71°F 6 mph, L To R San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) Chicago Cubs 11 OUT (Justin Steele …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.283 (487PA) Statcast xBA 0.296 (actual 0.289, underrated 7p) BvP career 8/23 (.348, K 5·HR 2) → weight 10% Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 San Diego Padres home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.4 vs 3.7 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
96% San Diego Padres home -1.5· Run Line Chicago Cubs away +1.5· Run Line Chicago Cubs away -1.5· Run Line games6 San Diego Padres Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 1.000 (home 2-0) vs away 0-2 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 4/2 Hit
95% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Chicago Cubs team runs Over 4.5· Runs Chicago Cubs Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.500 (away 0-2) vs home 2-0 1.000, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/5 Miss
5% batter84 FJ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296· BvP 8/23 adjusted 0.301, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
65% Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Hits 1+· hits 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ian Happ Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Busch Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ian Happ Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alex Bregman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ian Happ 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ian Happ RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Seiya Suzuki RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alex Bregman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Seiya Suzuki 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nico Hoerner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Busch RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Busch 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nico Hoerner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Busch Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nico Hoerner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Crow-Armstrong HR· HR 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch Hits 2+· hits 2+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 2+· hits 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Ian Happ Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ian Happ HR· HR 1+ Alex Bregman HR· HR 1+ Seiya Suzuki HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ Nico Hoerner HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
