Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians — Game center Final MLB
Sep 14 (Mon) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Chicago White Sox 44%
Cleveland Guardians 56%
Locked before start
Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Miss Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Miss Cleveland Guardians home +1.5· Run Line 69% Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.503 (home 76-75) vs away 77-73 0.513, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 9, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians
Pitching matchup
SN Sean Newcomb Appearance confirmed
GW Gavin Williams Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 66°F· wind 6 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 98· HR 98
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.254 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.251 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.310
+6.7%p Park Runs 98 / HR 98 66°F 6 mph, In From RF Cleveland Guardians 3 OUT (Colin Holderman …) Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) last 15G AVG 0.310 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.297 (145PA) Statcast xBA 0.251 (actual 0.254, overrated 3p) Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Cleveland Guardians home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 3.7 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Chicago White Sox away +1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians home -1.5· Run Line Chicago White Sox away -1.5· Run Line batter84 AM Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.254 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.251 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
63% Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ games6 Cleveland Guardians Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.503 (home 76-75) vs away 77-73 0.513, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 9, matchup combination model
runs 3/8 Miss
56% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Chicago White Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.513 (away 77-73) vs home 76-75 0.503, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/4 Hit
44% Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 3.5· Runs Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
