Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Chicago White Sox 44%
Cleveland Guardians 56%
Locked before start
Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Miss Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Miss Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ 58% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.507 (home 77-75) vs away 77-74 0.510, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 9, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians
Pitching matchup
CM Chris Murphy Appearance confirmed
FG Foster Griffin Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 81°F· wind 14 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 98· HR 98
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.250 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.263 adjusted 0.276, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.273
+2.8%p Statcast xBA
0.263 (actual 0.250)
+0.5%p Park Runs 98 / HR 98 81°F 14 mph, Out To CF Cleveland Guardians 3 OUT (Colin Holderman …) Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) last 15G AVG 0.273 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.271 (170PA) Statcast xBA 0.263 (actual 0.250, underrated 13p) Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Cleveland Guardians home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.4 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Chicago White Sox away +1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians home -1.5· Run Line Chicago White Sox away -1.5· Run Line batter84 MV Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.250 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.263 adjusted 0.276, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
62% Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ games6 Cleveland Guardians Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.507 (home 77-75) vs away 77-74 0.510, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 9, matchup combination model
runs 7/7 Hit
56% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 3.5· Runs Chicago White Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.510 (away 77-74) vs home 77-75 0.507, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/8 Miss
44% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
