Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians — Game center Final MLB
Oct 3 (Sat) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Chicago White Sox 43%
Cleveland Guardians 57%
Locked before start
Chicago White Sox away +1.5· Run Line 63% Chicago White Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win 43% Hit Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ 59% Miss Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.500 (home 0-1) vs away 1-0 1.000, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians
Pitching matchup
HS Hagen Smith Appearance confirmed
PM Parker Messick Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 63°F· wind 9 mph, R To L· park factor runs 98· HR 98
Data source: MLB Stats API
Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Cleveland Guardians home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 3.7 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Chicago White Sox away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
63% Cleveland Guardians home -1.5· Run Line Chicago White Sox away -1.5· Run Line batter84 Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ games6 Cleveland Guardians Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.500 (home 0-1) vs away 1-0 1.000, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 0/4 Miss
57% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Chicago White Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 1.000 (away 1-0) vs home 0-1 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/1 Hit
43% Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 3.5· Runs Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
