Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros — Game center Final MLB
Sep 29 (Tue) · 9:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Chicago White Sox 84%
Houston Astros 16%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 1.000 (away 1-0) vs home 0-1 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 고probability range shrunk (past 70%+ range 과신 adjusted)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Head to head Matchup Box score
Chicago White Sox Houston Astros
Pitching matchup
HS Hagen Smith Appearance confirmed
AB AJ Blubaugh Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 73°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 99· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago White Sox away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
97% Chicago White Sox away -1.5· Run Line High
expected runs 4.2 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
67% Houston Astros home +1.5· Run Line Houston Astros home -1.5· Run Line games6 Chicago White Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 1.000 (away 1-0) vs home 0-1 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 고probability range shrunk (past 70%+ range 과신 adjusted)
runs 6/4 Hit
84% Houston Astros team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Houston Astros Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.500 (home 0-1) vs away 1-0 1.000, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 9, matchup combination model· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 3/7 Miss
16% batter84 Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
