Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros — Game center Final MLB
Sep 30 (Wed) · 9:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Chicago White Sox 95%
Houston Astros 5%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 1.000 (away 2-0) vs home 0-2 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Chicago White Sox Houston Astros
Pitching matchup
SB Sean Burke Appearance confirmed
HB Hunter Brown Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 73°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 99· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago White Sox away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
97% Chicago White Sox away -1.5· Run Line High
expected runs 4.2 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
67% Houston Astros home +1.5· Run Line Houston Astros home -1.5· Run Line games6 Chicago White Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 1.000 (away 2-0) vs home 0-2 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/4 Hit
95% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Houston Astros team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Houston Astros Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.500 (home 0-2) vs away 2-0 1.000, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 9, matchup combination model
runs 3/8 Miss
5% batter84 Yordan Alvarez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeremy Peña Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jose Altuve Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cam Smith Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yordan Alvarez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeremy Peña Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Paredes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeremy Peña RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Paredes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeremy Peña 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Paredes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cam Smith 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cam Smith Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yordan Alvarez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jose Altuve 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cam Smith Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jose Altuve Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yordan Alvarez HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jose Altuve Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Walker HR· HR 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeremy Peña HR· HR 1+ Isaac Paredes HR· HR 1+ Cam Smith HR· HR 1+ Jose Altuve HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
