Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 22 (Tue) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Chicago White Sox 54%
Kansas City Royals 46%
Locked before start
Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71% Hit Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Hit Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Miss Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.516 (away 81-76) vs home 67-90 0.427, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals
Pitching matchup
AK Anthony Kay Appearance confirmed
DI Daniel Lynch IV Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 73°F· wind 5 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 100· HR 91
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Locked at publish
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.239 adjusted 0.333, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.346
+8.4%p Park Runs 100 / HR 91 73°F 5 mph, In From RF Kansas City Royals 12 OUT (Steven Cruz …) Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) last 15G AVG 0.346 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.350 (157PA) Statcast xBA 0.239 (actual 0.276, overrated 37p) Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 CM Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.239 adjusted 0.333, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
71% Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Chicago White Sox away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Kansas City Royals home +1.5· Run Line Chicago White Sox away -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals home -1.5· Run Line games6 Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Chicago White Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.516 (away 81-76) vs home 67-90 0.427, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 14/12 Hit
54% Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Kansas City Royals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.427 (home 67-90) vs away 81-76 0.516, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 9, matchup combination model
runs 11/15 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
