Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 23 (Wed) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Chicago White Sox 55%
Kansas City Royals 45%
Locked before start
Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71% Hit Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69% Hit Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.513 (away 81-77) vs home 68-90 0.430, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals
Pitching matchup
BH Bryan Hudson Appearance confirmed
SL Seth Lugo Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 74°F· wind 6 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 100· HR 91
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.250 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.263· BvP 2/11 adjusted 0.249, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.273
+2.8%p Statcast xBA
0.263 (actual 0.250)
+0.5%p Park Runs 100 / HR 91 74°F 6 mph, In From RF Kansas City Royals 12 OUT (Steven Cruz …) Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) last 15G AVG 0.273 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.242 (418PA) Statcast xBA 0.263 (actual 0.250, underrated 13p) BvP career 2/11 (.182, K 0·HR 0) → weight 5% Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 MV Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.250 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.263· BvP 2/11 adjusted 0.249, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
71% Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Chicago White Sox away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Kansas City Royals home +1.5· Run Line Chicago White Sox away -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals home -1.5· Run Line games6 Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Chicago White Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.513 (away 81-77) vs home 68-90 0.430, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/6 Miss
55% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs Kansas City Royals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.430 (home 68-90) vs away 81-77 0.513, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 9, matchup combination model
runs 5/5 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
