Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 6:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Chicago White Sox 55%
Kansas City Royals 45%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.516 (away 82-77) vs home 68-91 0.428, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals
Pitching matchup
DS David Sandlin Appearance confirmed
RD Randy Dobnak Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 72°F· wind 4 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 100· HR 91
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.284 adjusted 0.312, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.367
+10.8%p Park Runs 100 / HR 91 72°F 4 mph, In From RF Kansas City Royals 12 OUT (Steven Cruz …) Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) last 15G AVG 0.367 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.290 (383PA) Statcast xBA 0.284 (actual 0.277, underrated 7p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.250 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.263 adjusted 0.253, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.273
+2.8%p Statcast xBA
0.263 (actual 0.250)
+0.5%p Park Runs 100 / HR 91 72°F 4 mph, In From RF Kansas City Royals 12 OUT (Steven Cruz …) Chicago White Sox 9 OUT (Jake Rogers …) last 15G AVG 0.273 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.242 (418PA) Statcast xBA 0.263 (actual 0.250, underrated 13p) Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 SA Sam Antonacci Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.284 adjusted 0.312, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
71% MV Miguel Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.250 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.263 adjusted 0.253, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
71% Chase Meidroth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Salvador Perez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carter Jensen Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Massey Hits 1+· hits 1+ Munetaka Murakami RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Munetaka Murakami 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Munetaka Murakami Walks 1+· walks 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Miguel Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Miguel Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Miguel Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sam Antonacci 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tristan Peters Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jac Caglianone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Isaac Collins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase Meidroth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tristan Peters 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jac Caglianone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase Meidroth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sam Antonacci RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carter Jensen RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Miguel Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carter Jensen Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carter Jensen Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase Meidroth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carter Jensen 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Colson Montgomery Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Salvador Perez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase Meidroth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jac Caglianone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Salvador Perez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Massey Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tristan Peters Hits 2+· hits 2+ Munetaka Murakami Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Massey 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sam Antonacci Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tristan Peters Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jac Caglianone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Isaac Collins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Colson Montgomery Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bobby Witt Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carter Jensen Hits 2+· hits 2+ Salvador Perez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Isaac Collins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Munetaka Murakami HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Massey Hits 2+· hits 2+ Colson Montgomery HR· HR 1+ Carter Jensen HR· HR 1+ Miguel Vargas HR· HR 1+ Jac Caglianone HR· HR 1+ Salvador Perez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Salvador Perez HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bobby Witt Jr. HR· HR 1+ Michael Massey HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase Meidroth HR· HR 1+ Tristan Peters HR· HR 1+ Sam Antonacci HR· HR 1+ Isaac Collins HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Chicago White Sox away +1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals home +1.5· Run Line Chicago White Sox away -1.5· Run Line Kansas City Royals home -1.5· Run Line games6 Chicago White Sox team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Chicago White Sox Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.516 (away 82-77) vs home 68-91 0.428, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 9/2 Hit
55% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Kansas City Royals team runs Over 3.5· Runs Kansas City Royals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.428 (home 68-91) vs away 82-77 0.516, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 9, matchup combination model
runs 1/10 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
