Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves — Game center Final MLB
Sep 22 (Tue) · 11:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Cincinnati Reds 34%
Atlanta Braves 66%
Locked before start
Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72% Hit Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72% Hit Atlanta Braves home +1.5· Run Line 78% Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.586 (home 92-65) vs away 73-84 0.465, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 7, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cincinnati Reds Atlanta Braves
Pitching matchup
BW Brandon Williamson Appearance confirmed
JR JR Ritchie Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Overcast 81°F· wind 5 mph, Out To RF· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Locked at publish
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.300, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 81°F 5 mph, Out To RF Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Dane Myers …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.286 (210PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Atlanta Braves home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.5 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
78% Cincinnati Reds away +1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves home -1.5· Run Line Cincinnati Reds away -1.5· Run Line batter84 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.300, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
72% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sal Stewart Hits 1+· hits 1+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Bleday Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Elly De La Cruz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Eugenio Suárez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sal Stewart 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Eugenio Suárez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Elly De La Cruz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Elly De La Cruz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sal Stewart Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tyler Stephenson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Bleday RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Eugenio Suárez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sal Stewart RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Eugenio Suárez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tyler Stephenson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt McLain RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tyler Stephenson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Bleday Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tyler Stephenson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt McLain 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sal Stewart Hits 2+· hits 2+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Elly De La Cruz HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Eugenio Suárez HR· HR 1+ Sal Stewart HR· HR 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Bleday HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ games6 Atlanta Braves Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.586 (home 92-65) vs away 73-84 0.465, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 0/5 Miss
66% Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Cincinnati Reds team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Cincinnati Reds Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.465 (away 73-84) vs home 92-65 0.586, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/1 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
