Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves — Game center Final MLB
Sep 23 (Wed) · 11:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Cincinnati Reds 34%
Atlanta Braves 66%
Locked before start
Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72% Miss Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72% Hit Atlanta Braves home +1.5· Run Line 78% Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.589 (home 93-65) vs away 73-85 0.462, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 7, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cincinnati Reds Atlanta Braves
Pitching matchup
AA Andrew Abbott Appearance confirmed
CS Chris Sale Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 74°F· wind 12 mph, L To R· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 1/8 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 74°F 12 mph, L To R Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Dane Myers …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.286 (210PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) BvP career 1/8 (.125, K 2·HR 0) → weight 4% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Atlanta Braves home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.5 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
78% Cincinnati Reds away +1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves home -1.5· Run Line Cincinnati Reds away -1.5· Run Line batter84 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 1/8 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
72% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sal Stewart Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt McLain Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Elly De La Cruz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Bleday Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Eugenio Suárez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Tyler Stephenson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sal Stewart 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Elly De La Cruz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Elly De La Cruz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Eugenio Suárez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sal Stewart Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tyler Stephenson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Eugenio Suárez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Sal Stewart RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Eugenio Suárez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Bleday 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tyler Stephenson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tyler Stephenson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt McLain Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Elly De La Cruz HR· HR 1+ Sal Stewart HR· HR 1+ Eugenio Suárez HR· HR 1+ JJ Bleday HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain HR· HR 1+ Tyler Stephenson HR· HR 1+ games6 Atlanta Braves Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.589 (home 93-65) vs away 73-85 0.462, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 3/3 Hit
66% Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Cincinnati Reds Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.462 (away 73-85) vs home 93-65 0.589, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/4 Miss
34% Cincinnati Reds team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
