Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 11:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Cincinnati Reds 34%
Atlanta Braves 66%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.585 (home 93-66) vs away 74-85 0.465, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 7, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cincinnati Reds Atlanta Braves
Pitching matchup
BS Brady Singer Appearance confirmed
TM Tyler Mahle Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 70°F· wind 8 mph, L To R· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 76%
Model probability
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 70°F 8 mph, L To R Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Dane Myers …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.299 (381PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Atlanta Braves home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.5 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
78% Cincinnati Reds away +1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves home -1.5· Run Line Cincinnati Reds away -1.5· Run Line batter84 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
76% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sal Stewart Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Bleday Hits 1+· hits 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Eugenio Suárez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sal Stewart 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Elly De La Cruz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sal Stewart Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Elly De La Cruz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Bleday RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Eugenio Suárez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Eugenio Suárez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Elly De La Cruz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Eugenio Suárez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tyler Stephenson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tyler Stephenson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tyler Stephenson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tyler Stephenson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sal Stewart Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt McLain Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Sal Stewart Hits 2+· hits 2+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Eugenio Suárez HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Sal Stewart HR· HR 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz HR· HR 1+ JJ Bleday HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt McLain Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain HR· HR 1+ games6 Atlanta Braves Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.585 (home 93-66) vs away 74-85 0.465, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 6/8 Miss
66% Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Cincinnati Reds team runs Over 3.5· Runs Cincinnati Reds Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.465 (away 74-85) vs home 93-66 0.585, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/7 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
