Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 6:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Cincinnati Reds 33%
Milwaukee Brewers 67%
Locked before start
Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Hit Milwaukee Brewers home +1.5· Run Line 80% Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Miss Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.620 (home 93-57) vs away 70-79 0.470, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 7, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching matchup
CB Chase Burns Appearance confirmed
RG Robert Gasser Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Locked at publish
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.283 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281· BvP 3/8 adjusted 0.319, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.291
+1.0%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 72°F 0 mph, None Milwaukee Brewers 6 OUT (Andrew Vaughn …) Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Dane Myers …) last 15G AVG 0.291 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.325 (166PA) Statcast xBA 0.281 (actual 0.283, overrated 2p) BvP career 3/8 (.375, K 2·HR 1) → weight 4% Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.5 vs 4.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
80% Milwaukee Brewers home -1.5· Run Line Cincinnati Reds away +1.5· Run Line Cincinnati Reds away -1.5· Run Line games6 Milwaukee Brewers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.620 (home 93-57) vs away 70-79 0.470, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 3/5 Miss
67% Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Cincinnati Reds team runs Over 3.5· Runs Cincinnati Reds Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.470 (away 70-79) vs home 93-57 0.620, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/4 Hit
33% batter84 EC Elly De La Cruz Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.283 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281· BvP 3/8 adjusted 0.319, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
65% Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sal Stewart Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 1+· hits 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt McLain Hits 1+· hits 1+ Elly De La Cruz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sal Stewart Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Elly De La Cruz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sal Stewart RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sal Stewart 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Bleday Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Eugenio Suárez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Bleday Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tyler Stephenson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tyler Stephenson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Elly De La Cruz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Eugenio Suárez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tyler Stephenson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Eugenio Suárez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt McLain Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Eugenio Suárez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tyler Stephenson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sal Stewart Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt McLain RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Bleday Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart HR· HR 1+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Elly De La Cruz HR· HR 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Eugenio Suárez HR· HR 1+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ JJ Bleday HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain HR· HR 1+ Tyler Stephenson HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
