Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 25 (Fri) · 11:07 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Cincinnati Reds 44%
Toronto Blue Jays 56%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.488 (home 78-82) vs away 74-86 0.463, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 7, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cincinnati Reds Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching matchup
NL Nick Lodolo Appearance confirmed
JS José Soriano Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 61°F· wind 6 mph, Out To RF· park factor runs 101· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.224 adjusted 0.243, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.235
+0.4%p Park Runs 101 / HR 103 61°F 6 mph, Out To RF Toronto Blue Jays 13 OUT (Dylan Cease …) Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Tony Santillan …) last 15G AVG 0.235 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.250 (148PA) Statcast xBA 0.224 (actual 0.232, overrated 8p) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 KO Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.224 adjusted 0.243, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
71% Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ George Springer Hits 1+· hits 1+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sal Stewart Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 1+· hits 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Bleday Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ George Springer Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz Walks 1+· walks 1+ George Springer 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andrés Giménez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ernie Clement 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ George Springer RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andrés Giménez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ George Springer Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ernie Clement RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Eugenio Suárez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sal Stewart Walks 1+· walks 1+ Eugenio Suárez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tyler Stephenson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Elly De La Cruz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sal Stewart 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Elly De La Cruz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt McLain Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sal Stewart Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Bleday RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Eugenio Suárez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sal Stewart RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Eugenio Suárez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Elly De La Cruz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Bleday Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tyler Stephenson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt McLain RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Tyler Stephenson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt McLain 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tyler Stephenson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 2+· hits 2+ George Springer Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kazuma Okamoto HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Bleday Hits 2+· hits 2+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andrés Giménez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Eugenio Suárez HR· HR 1+ Sal Stewart HR· HR 1+ George Springer HR· HR 1+ Elly De La Cruz HR· HR 1+ JJ Bleday HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Lukes HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez HR· HR 1+ Tyler Stephenson HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain HR· HR 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Toronto Blue Jays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 3.7 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Cincinnati Reds away +1.5· Run Line Toronto Blue Jays home -1.5· Run Line Cincinnati Reds away -1.5· Run Line games6 Toronto Blue Jays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Toronto Blue Jays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.488 (home 78-82) vs away 74-86 0.463, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 6/6 Hit
56% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Cincinnati Reds Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.463 (away 74-86) vs home 78-82 0.488, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/7 Miss
44% Cincinnati Reds team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
