Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 7:07 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Cincinnati Reds 44%
Toronto Blue Jays 56%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.484 (home 78-83) vs away 75-86 0.466, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 7, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cincinnati Reds Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching matchup
RL Rhett Lowder Appearance confirmed
TY Trey Yesavage Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 71°F· wind 5 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 101· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.318
+4.9%p Park Runs 101 / HR 103 71°F 5 mph, Out To CF Toronto Blue Jays 13 OUT (Dylan Cease …) Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Tony Santillan …) last 15G AVG 0.318 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.291 (333PA) Statcast xBA 0.258 (actual 0.277, overrated 19p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.224 adjusted 0.225, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.235
+0.4%p Park Runs 101 / HR 103 71°F 5 mph, Out To CF Toronto Blue Jays 13 OUT (Dylan Cease …) Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Tony Santillan …) last 15G AVG 0.235 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.226 (420PA) Statcast xBA 0.224 (actual 0.232, overrated 8p) Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 NL Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
72% KO Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.224 adjusted 0.225, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
71% Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ George Springer Hits 1+· hits 1+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sal Stewart Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kazuma Okamoto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Lukes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andrés Giménez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Bleday Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ George Springer 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ernie Clement Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ernie Clement 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andrés Giménez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Eugenio Suárez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ernie Clement RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sal Stewart Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tyler Stephenson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Walks 1+· walks 1+ Eugenio Suárez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sal Stewart 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ George Springer Hits 2+· hits 2+ Elly De La Cruz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Elly De La Cruz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Bleday RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sal Stewart Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Bleday 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sal Stewart RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Elly De La Cruz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Eugenio Suárez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tyler Stephenson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Eugenio Suárez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Tyler Stephenson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tyler Stephenson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt McLain 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt McLain RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Lukes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto HR· HR 1+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 2+· hits 2+ Eugenio Suárez HR· HR 1+ Sal Stewart HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz HR· HR 1+ JJ Bleday HR· HR 1+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 2+· hits 2+ George Springer HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement HR· HR 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Toronto Blue Jays home +1.5· Run Line Cincinnati Reds away +1.5· Run Line Toronto Blue Jays home -1.5· Run Line Cincinnati Reds away -1.5· Run Line games6 Toronto Blue Jays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Toronto Blue Jays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.484 (home 78-83) vs away 75-86 0.466, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 1/6 Miss
56% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Cincinnati Reds Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.466 (away 75-86) vs home 78-83 0.484, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/2 Hit
44% Cincinnati Reds team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
