Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 7:07 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Cincinnati Reds 44%
Toronto Blue Jays 56%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.488 (home 79-83) vs away 75-87 0.463, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 7, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cincinnati Reds Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching matchup
BW Brandon Williamson Appearance confirmed
MS Max Scherzer Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 76°F· wind 15 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 101· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.224 adjusted 0.243, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.235
+0.4%p Park Runs 101 / HR 103 76°F 15 mph, In From CF Toronto Blue Jays 13 OUT (Dylan Cease …) Cincinnati Reds 7 OUT (Tony Santillan …) last 15G AVG 0.235 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.250 (148PA) Statcast xBA 0.224 (actual 0.232, overrated 8p) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Toronto Blue Jays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.5 vs 3.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Cincinnati Reds away +1.5· Run Line Toronto Blue Jays home -1.5· Run Line Cincinnati Reds away -1.5· Run Line batter84 KO Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.224 adjusted 0.243, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
68% Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ George Springer Hits 1+· hits 1+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Sal Stewart Hits 1+· hits 1+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 1+· hits 1+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kazuma Okamoto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt McLain Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ George Springer Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Bleday Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ernie Clement 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ George Springer 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ George Springer RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andrés Giménez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ernie Clement Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Elly De La Cruz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Sal Stewart 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ernie Clement RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Lukes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Elly De La Cruz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Eugenio Suárez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Lukes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Eugenio Suárez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Tyler Stephenson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sal Stewart Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Bleday RBI 1+· RBI 1+ George Springer Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Lukes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Sal Stewart Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt McLain Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Sal Stewart RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Bleday 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Eugenio Suárez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Eugenio Suárez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Bleday Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt McLain RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Lukes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt McLain 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tyler Stephenson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Tyler Stephenson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ernie Clement Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Lukes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt McLain Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto HR· HR 1+ George Springer Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement Walks 1+· walks 1+ Elly De La Cruz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Sal Stewart Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andrés Giménez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Sal Stewart HR· HR 1+ Elly De La Cruz HR· HR 1+ Eugenio Suárez HR· HR 1+ JJ Bleday HR· HR 1+ JJ Bleday Hits 2+· hits 2+ Eugenio Suárez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Tyler Stephenson Hits 2+· hits 2+ George Springer HR· HR 1+ Matt McLain Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt McLain HR· HR 1+ Tyler Stephenson HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement HR· HR 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR· HR 1+ games6 Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Toronto Blue Jays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Toronto Blue Jays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.488 (home 79-83) vs away 75-87 0.463, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 7, matchup combination model
runs 5/2 Hit
56% Cincinnati Reds team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Cincinnati Reds Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.463 (away 75-87) vs home 79-83 0.488, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/6 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
