Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox — Game center Final MLB
Sep 22 (Tue) · 10:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Cleveland Guardians 44%
Boston Red Sox 56%
Locked before start
Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ 56% Miss Boston Red Sox home +1.5· Run Line 70% Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.535 (home 84-73) vs away 82-75 0.522, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 3, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cleveland Guardians Boston Red Sox
Pitching matchup
PM Parker Messick Appearance confirmed
PT Payton Tolle Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 62°F· wind 5 mph, Varies· park factor runs 108· HR 96
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.253 adjusted 0.268, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.179
-8.3%p Park Runs 108 / HR 96 62°F 5 mph, Varies Boston Red Sox 11 OUT (Tyron Guerrero …) Cleveland Guardians 3 OUT (Colin Holderman …) last 15G AVG 0.179 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.295 (190PA) Statcast xBA 0.253 (actual 0.248, underrated 5p) Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Boston Red Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Cleveland Guardians away +1.5· Run Line Boston Red Sox home -1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians away -1.5· Run Line batter84 WA Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.253 adjusted 0.268, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
62% Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ games6 Boston Red Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.535 (home 84-73) vs away 82-75 0.522, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 3, matchup combination model
runs 2/4 Miss
56% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Cleveland Guardians Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.522 (away 82-75) vs home 84-73 0.535, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/3 Hit
44% Boston Red Sox team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
