Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox — Game center Final MLB
Sep 23 (Wed) · 11:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Cleveland Guardians 47%
Boston Red Sox 53%
Locked before start
Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Hit Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Hit Boston Red Sox home +1.5· Run Line 69% Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.538 (home 85-73) vs away 82-76 0.519, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 3, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cleveland Guardians Boston Red Sox
Pitching matchup
FG Foster Griffin Appearance confirmed
SG Sonny Gray Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 57°F· wind 9 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 108· HR 96
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63%
Locked at publish
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.253 adjusted 0.268, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.179
-8.3%p Park Runs 108 / HR 96 57°F 9 mph, In From CF Boston Red Sox 11 OUT (Tyron Guerrero …) Cleveland Guardians 3 OUT (Colin Holderman …) last 15G AVG 0.179 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.295 (190PA) Statcast xBA 0.253 (actual 0.248, underrated 5p) Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Boston Red Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 3.7 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Cleveland Guardians away +1.5· Run Line Boston Red Sox home -1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians away -1.5· Run Line batter84 WA Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.253 adjusted 0.268, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
63% Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ games6 Boston Red Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.538 (home 85-73) vs away 82-76 0.519, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 3, matchup combination model
runs 1/1 Hit
53% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Boston Red Sox team runs Over 3.5· Runs Cleveland Guardians Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.519 (away 82-76) vs home 85-73 0.538, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 0/2 Miss
47% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
