Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 10:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Cleveland Guardians 47%
Boston Red Sox 53%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.535 (home 85-74) vs away 83-76 0.522, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 3, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Cleveland Guardians Boston Red Sox
Pitching matchup
DE Daniel Espino Appearance confirmed
RS Ranger Suarez Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 58°F· wind 6 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 108· HR 96
Data source: MLB Stats API
Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Boston Red Sox home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% Cleveland Guardians away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
64% Boston Red Sox home -1.5· Run Line Cleveland Guardians away -1.5· Run Line batter84 Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 1+· hits 1+ Willson Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jarren Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 1+· hits 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Ramírez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wilyer Abreu Walks 1+· walks 1+ Steven Kwan Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Willson Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Willson Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Caleb Durbin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wilyer Abreu 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wilyer Abreu Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wilyer Abreu RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Travis Bazzana Walks 1+· walks 1+ Angel Martínez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jarren Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jarren Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Angel Martínez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jarren Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Caleb Durbin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andruw Monasterio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jarren Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Ramírez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Ramírez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andruw Monasterio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andruw Monasterio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andruw Monasterio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brayan Rocchio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chase DeLauter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Ramírez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Steven Kwan 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Travis Bazzana 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Angel Martínez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brayan Rocchio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brayan Rocchio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Steven Kwan Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Travis Bazzana Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Willson Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brayan Rocchio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Angel Martínez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Steven Kwan RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chase DeLauter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wilyer Abreu Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Willson Contreras HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Ramírez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brayan Rocchio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ceddanne Rafaela Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wilyer Abreu HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andruw Monasterio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jarren Duran HR· HR 1+ Ceddanne Rafaela HR· HR 1+ Travis Bazzana Hits 2+· hits 2+ Angel Martínez HR· HR 1+ Caleb Durbin HR· HR 1+ Chase DeLauter HR· HR 1+ Andruw Monasterio HR· HR 1+ Angel Martínez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Travis Bazzana HR· HR 1+ José Ramírez HR· HR 1+ Brayan Rocchio HR· HR 1+ Steven Kwan HR· HR 1+ games6 Boston Red Sox Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.535 (home 85-74) vs away 83-76 0.522, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 3, matchup combination model
runs 0/2 Miss
53% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Boston Red Sox team runs Over 3.5· Runs Cleveland Guardians Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.522 (away 83-76) vs home 85-74 0.535, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/1 Hit
47% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Cleveland Guardians team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
